A storm system will begin to impact the Southern Plains this week, potentially bringing days of heavy rain and severe storms to the region. While there is still some uncertainty about who will see the worst impacts, our forecasts show that severe storms, large hail, damaging winds and even some tornadoes are possible.
This area actually needs the rainfall considerably due to the ongoing drought, but may pick up too much of a good thing in a stuck weather pattern that could last into early next week.
(MORE:Typical March Weather)
Severe Threat Timing
While some thunderstorms may rumble across the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys during the day, the main threat for a few severe thunderstorms is Tuesday night from parts of central and western Oklahoma into southern Kansas. Large hail is the main concern with these nighttime storms.
Cities: Oklahoma City, Wichita
Severe thunderstorms are most possible mainly in the afternoon and evening from parts of northern Texas into the Ozarks. Large hail, damaging thunderstorm winds and a few tornadoes are possible.
More isolated strong to severe storms are possible as far north as the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
Cities:Dallas, Ft. Smith
Later This Week
Additional rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the Plains each day into this weekend.
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Friday and Friday evening may have a scattered severe thunderstorm threat extending from parts of central Texas to Iowa.
This weekend, severe thunderstorms may cluster near a sagging and stalling frontal boundary across Texas into parts of Arkansas and Louisiana.
Check back with us at weather.com for updates to this forecast a(
(MAPS:7-Day US Forecast)
How Much Rain?
Rainfall is expected to be heavy at times with these storms, and several areas will receive multiple days of heavy rain even before the severe weather threat. The Weather Prediction Center has issued level 1 out of 4 risks for heavy rainfall for Tuesday and Wednesday across parts of the Southern Plains and the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Rainfall of 1-3 inches is possible with isolated higher totals where the heaviest storms train over the same locations.
Soaking A Drought
These parts of the country are very much in need of rainfall. Drought persists across much of the South, and the reason is actually fairly straightforward.
We have been under a La Niña this winter, which causes some significant impacts to our weather.
(MORE:La Niña Is Fading)
A La Niña occurs when trade winds moving from east to west across the Equator over the Pacific Ocean ramp up, pushing warm water to the Western Pacific. This forces cooler water to rise to the surface across the eastern region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
This simple change has a drastic impact on the weather around the world and is amplified in the winter.
In a typical La Niña winter, the jet stream is typically forced further north, leaving the South warmer and drier. That pattern sends most of the precipitation and cooler temperatures to the north.
Rob Shackelfordis a meteorologist and climate scientist at weather.com. He received his undergraduate and master's degrees from the University of Georgia studying meteorology and experimenting with alternative hurricane forecasting tools.
